Analisis Prediksi Penjualan Sparepart Menggunakan Metode Moving Average pada Toko Sun Diesel
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Abstract
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis prediksi penjualan sparepart pada Toko Sun Diesel menggunakan metode Moving Average. Permasalahan utama yang dihadapi adalah ketidakseimbangan antara persediaan dan permintaan yang menyebabkan kelebihan maupun kekurangan stok. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode kuantitatif dengan data historis penjualan selama periode Januari hingga September 2025 pada 30 jenis sparepart. Metode yang digunakan adalah Moving Average dengan dua pendekatan, yaitu Moving Average 3 periode (MA3) dan Moving Average 5 periode (MA5). Evaluasi dilakukan menggunakan Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) dan Mean Squared Error (MSE). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa metode MA3 memiliki tingkat akurasi yang lebih baik dengan nilai MAPE sebesar 12,19% dan MSE sebesar 57,26 dibandingkan MA5 dengan MAPE 18,09% dan MSE 95,86. Dengan demikian, metode MA3 dinilai lebih efektif untuk digunakan dalam memprediksi penjualan pada periode berikutnya. Hasil penelitian ini diharapkan dapat membantu pengambilan keputusan dalam pengelolaan stok barang secara lebih optimal.
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References
Prediksi Penjualan, Moving Average, MAPE, MSE, Sparepart